With its two dedicated modules, the ESS provides significant insights into layman’s views of democracy. Notably, research indicates strong support for liberal, social, and direct models, suggesting a shared understanding of democracy. Yet Europeans amalgamate democratic features that may be considered distinct or incompatible. The mismatch is not only evident from the theoretical standpoint of competing models of democracy but also given that political parties address the antecedents and consequences of liberal, social, or direct democracy in different ways.
The question of whether ordinary citizens incorporate party stances into their democratic beliefs is crucial in the current context of escalating polarization. Whereas the conventional account posits that heightened party competition improves satisfaction with democracy and turnout, much less is known about the nexus between democratic views, electoral behavior, and party system polarization. This paper contends that democratic views mediate the relationship between party polarization and voting. It is argued that party polarization on cultural, economic, and democratic issues has a differential influence on vote choice depending on the democratic model citizens support.
Two sets of hypotheses are scrutinized. First, consistent with studies stressing that populist voters are disgruntled with liberal democracy and responsive to issues such as social protection or the renewal of democratic institutions (protest thesis), it is anticipated that citizens supporting the liberal model are more inclined to vote for non-populist parties (H1a), while their counterparts supporting the social model are more likely to vote for radical-left populist parties (H2a). Similarly, those supportive of the populist model are more prone to vote for radical-right populist parties (H3a).
Second, drawing on the notion that party polarization enhances citizens' propensity to follow elite cues (responsiveness thesis), the three trends above are expected to be more pronounced when there is a high level of party polarization on cultural issues (associated with cleavages inherent in liberal democracy) (H1b), economic issues (linked to social democracy) (H2b), and democratic issues (related to popular sovereignty) (H3b).
Data from ESS 10 are first combined with expert data from the PopuList to assess how democratic views shape electoral behavior. Multilevel CFA and logistic models provide evidence that democratic views exert a specific effect, with Europeans holding strong liberal views more likely to vote for non-populist parties. Conversely, those holding strong social or populist views more likely cast a ballot for a populist party and abstain from voting (in line with the apathy thesis).
CHES data are then used to measure party polarization on cultural, economic and democratic issues at the country level. The second set of hypotheses receives mixed empirical support. While the probability of voting for populist parties increases more with party polarization on democratic issues amoung citizens holding populist views, cross-level interactions between party polarization and democratic views are less significant when examining the impact of liberal and social issues on electoral behavior.
All in all, democratic views are a route to voting but they play to the hilt when political competition touches upon popular sovereignty and involves the populist model of democracy.
